Category Archives: Investor Relations

Five stages of grief

I hate to go all morose and contrarian on another “up” day in the markets, but …

Jerome Booth, research director of London-based emerging markets specialist Ashmore Investment Management, makes an interesting point in a Sept. 14 Financial Times column. He posits that global markets are moving, slogging really, through the classic five stages of grief. When we lose a loved one, we follow a pattern described by psychiatrist Elisabeth Kübler-Ross as the five-step model of grief: denial … anger … bargaining … depression … and, finally, acceptance.

Booth applies this to global markets.

As investor relations people making our rounds with investors, we might probe what stage the patient is in, on any particular day, before launching into our story.

What has died, Booth writes, is our complacence in using debt to meet all needs:

Western Europe and the US now face years of painful deleveraging. The loss they feel is the death of the levered model enabling them to live beyond their means, plus a loss of prestige as their economic models have failed.

As an EM guy, Booth says we’ll have to adjust to kowtowing a bit to emerging markets. In the West right now, he writes, we’re in denial:

When faced with a truly awful prospect we explore and then cling to any theory or hope that reality may be different. Even where political leaders understand the immensity of their loss, the denial of their electorates constrains their action.

There are examples of anger – riots in Greece and other nations over economics. And of bargaining to delay unpleasant consequences or sweep them under the rug. Still ahead, perhaps, is the loss of hope a patient feels as depression. And we haven’t seen many signs yet that our leaders – or we the people – have moved on to acceptance of realities so we can deal with what needs to be done.

All this is very global and “macro,” but let’s think about how it applies to IR messages about the businesses we speak for:

  • Above all, are we helping our management teams to avoid living in denial?
  • In offering forward-looking views to investors, do we spell out assumptions on the economic factors that drive our particular businesses?
  • Do we explain how we plan to perform if the economy stays weak for a long time, vs. signing onto consensus hopes for recovery in H2, or H1 2012, or  … ?
  • When our stock is beaten-down, do we listen to see if the investor on the line is in the anger stage or depression – or maybe in a place to hear reality and look forward to ways out of the doldrums?
  • Do we deal with debt and balance sheet metrics, including strategies for managing the balance sheet, in a way that helps investors understand?

Just a handful of thought-starters. I’m not arguing where investors’ sentiment should be – just saying IR people need to pay attention to where it is.

Mainly, I appreciate Booth’s wry insight into the psychology of today’s happy-nervous-elated-terrified-optimistic-not so sure-ever mercurial stock market. I’d love to hear your reactions.

© 2011 Johnson Strategic Communications Inc.


Investors, this is your day!

If you’re not already doing an “analyst day” every year or two, maybe you should be. That’s my takeaway from “NIRI Survey Reveals Current Analyst/Investor Day Practices” - a benchmarking study released Monday by NIRI.

Key finding: 71% of the 431 investor relations professionals responding to NIRI’s survey hold a periodic analyst/investor day. It’s a chance to show off management and tell the company’s story in-depth. After all, you’re locking investors in a room for a half day or full day, so this is “quality time.”

Of course, the larger a company is, the more likely it is to host a regular analyst day. But even among small caps ($250 million-$2 billion), 63% offer a “day.”

Some 70% hold their analyst days in New York or another major investment center, while 40% invite investors in to meetings at a corporate facility, NIRI found.

A few thoughts based on analyst days I’ve been involved with:

  • The CEO and CFO play host and give the strategic overview, but having a half day or more is a great opportunity to demonstrate management’s bench strength by bringing division heads, R&D leaders or operating executives forward for investors to meet them in a fairly controlled environment.
  • It’s also a chance to put on display the chemistry of the management team – showing investors how the top execs relate to each other. Not a bad idea to do this some months after a big merger, to present a unified, compatible team.
  • How often you hold an analyst day is up to you. How fast is the story evolving? If there’s progress every year, annual is great. If this year looks a lot like last, maybe not. (NIRI found 49% of companies who hold “days” do so annually, 35% less often, 12% on an ad hoc basis, 3% more than once a year.)
  • The name “analyst day” doesn’t quite capture the fact that institutional investors are the primary audience. Sure, the sell side attends – but real shareholders and potential investors are the main point of the effort.
  • I personally like the on-site analyst day, giving investors a feeling of seeing the business and kicking the tires, even though they’re carefully shepherded on any tours of the plant or laboratories. But a lot depends on your location. Call up a few analysts or investors and get their input before scheduling your day.
  • Schedule enough breaks to let investors check email, used the phone and visit the restroom. It’s hard to limit your speakers – but, hey, give people a break.

What’s your experience with analyst days? Love ‘em? Hate ‘em? Any tips?

© 2011 Johnson Strategic Communications Inc.


Steady as she goes, IROs

A quote of the day for investor relations professionals, from National Investor Relations Institute President and CEO Jeff Morgan in his “IR Weekly” email and blog post under the heading “Market Mayhem”:

Market volatility reached new extremes last week as we experienced global market moves of positive to negative 5% from one day to the next. Most believe it is very unlikely these market moves were driven by fundamental analysis of companies, but instead by panic, margin calls and computerized trading. For IROs, these are the most challenging market conditions as they lack logic and rational explanation. Time and other actions outside our influence and control will bring markets back into check, as we continue to tell our story to investors.

I agree, although market mayhem may be more rational than we can see at the moment. However much we dislike “panic,” if the market performs horribly going forward, fear will seem logical in retrospect. Time will tell whether investors should “Hang on and weather the storm” or “Batten down the hatches and go to cash.”

Certainly for IR professionals, whose individual companies may be doing fine even as the market goes crazy, it’s sound advice to hold the wheel … steady as she goes.

© 2011 Johnson Strategic Communications Inc.


Jamie Dimon: Cheer up, America!

While the markets are going crazy, Jamie Dimon, chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase & Co., is out visiting bank customers and employees on a bus tour in California – and giving an interview today with CNBC. His core message: Cheer up, America! That’s not bad advice for investor relations folks, either.

Dimon doesn’t mince words about shortcomings in European finances, US policy making, even the state of banking. But he comes back to a bedrock optimism:

Confidence is like a secret sauce. … Here’s what I would say to the American public in total. When you go to sleep at night think about the following before you get depressed and you see the market down 500 points: This nation is still the greatest nation on the planet. It was the first democracy on the planet. We have the best military on the planet, and God bless our veterans all around the world, those who have served and those who are serving today. We have the best universities on the planet and the best businesses. Those things that I just said - best military, best rule of law, most innovation, the hardest working ethic of all – those things are going to be here for decades. They’re not going away. The strength in the system is going to blow your socks off when it gets out of this malaise we’re in. Those things are there.

It’s good to see an executive smiling. Regardless of what you think of Dimon or big banks, he’s expressing the spirit that drives American business. It’s worth watching both pieces on CNBC. Just to feel better on another day of, as they say, volatility.

By the way, in 2008 I shared 10 ideas on doing IR in a bear market. These apply today, too, for investor relations practitioners surveying the Wall Street carnage. I’d welcome your comments or ideas on helping our companies rise above the malaise.

© 2011 Johnson Strategic Communications Inc.


Investor relations for the USA?

The President has pulled into the lead, ahead of a three-way tie among the Treasury secretary, “Other” (write-ins Ben BernankePaul Volcker, Bill Clinton and “Someone who’s fluent in Chinese“) and “Oh, never mind!” What do you think?

Not a political comment … just a little comic relief amid wild days in the markets.


Adding wiggle room to guidance

Are we in recession again? Weak recovery? Heading for Financial Crisis 2.0? No wonder more than a few CFOs and IROs have been wringing their hands over what guidance to provide investors as part of the second-quarter reporting season.

If you’re looking for an example of softening guidance by widening the range, Procter & Gamble provided just that today with its fiscal fourth-quarter results. For the new fiscal year, P&G forecast core EPS “in a range of $4.17 to $4.33, up six to 10 percent.” Fair enough. That’s not exactly fuzzy, but the range is a bit broader than P&G gave last year at this time (a 10-cent span in EPS, vs. 16 cents this year).

Market watchers commented on the change, as in The Wall Street Journal story headlined “P&G Outlook Reflects Jitters”:

P&G adopted a wider-than-normal range for its fiscal 2012 outlook, which encircled Wall Street estimates, calling for per-share earnings growth of 6% to 10%. The low-end is slightly below the consumer-product giant’s long-term goals for annual growth of high-single digits to low double-digit growth, largely on questions percolating through the global economy.

On P&G’s conference call, Chief Financial Officer Jon Moeller blamed a cloudy macro environment:

Our guidance ranges will be a little bit wider than normal this year, reflecting a broad policy uncertainty, ongoing high levels of volatility and market growth rates, input costs and foreign exchange, as well as uncertainty both upside and downside related to pricing across the portfolio.

So there you have it – big, sensible P&G is a pretty safe role model. Go ahead and add wiggle room to your guidance. We may all need it.

© 2011 Johnson Strategic Communications Inc.


Building a Good Investor Presentation

The company presentation to analysts is a staple of investor relations, yet it doesn’t get the type of analysis it deserves. I’m not talking here about whether or not your slides are any good or how well your chairman speaks in public. Rather, I’m talking here about the basic structure of how you convey the information about what your company is and how it operates. A good presentation can generate interest in your company, whereas a bad presentation may very well turn off investors. Presentations are further complicated by the fact that at any given conference, a company executive will be speaking to a spectrum of investors, ranging from those that know the company well to those who may never have heard of it before.

There are many ways to create a well thought out overview of company information for investors and I don’t claim to hold a patent on the only way to do things. What follows is my approach, worked out over thirty years of presenting to investors. It is designed to organize the flow of information you need to convey.

First, start with a structure that borrows from a common investor relations framework:

Past Performance + Perception of Future Performance = Stock Price.

In other words, investors analyze the value of a company’s stock by trying to project what it will do in the future, using what it has been able to accomplish in the past as a reality check. From this framework, it becomes clear that when speaking to investors, a company needs to address both where it’s been and where it’s going. While this may seem obvious, I have seen many presentations totally ignore one side or the other of the equation.

In order to impose some logical flow to the requirements of such a formula, it makes sense to break down the presentation into three basic building blocks of information: Who we are, What we’re currently doing and Where we’re going in the future. This format helps to keep the story on track while still retaining enough flexibility to be creative.

Who We Are: This is the foundation of the presentation. It should include basics on the company’s industry, position within the industry, market share, operating locations, history and culture. The art to doing this section correctly is to provide enough basic information so that someone new to the stock has a good grasp of what your business is, while providing sufficient new information to keep those familiar with your story interested. For example, if you are in the oil exploration business, the basic information you give out should not only include the basics of the segment of your industry, but would also include updated information on the number of rigs you might have in operation and new exploration sites.

What We Do: This is the section of the presentation where companies can talk about what makes them unique. Most companies have an overriding operating philosophy which drives them forward; for some, such as Wal-Mart, it is being the low cost operator, while for others, such as Apple, it’s an obsession with design excellence. As important in this section as the “what we do” is the “why we do it”. If you can convey to investors not only what you are good at doing, but also the driving force behind what you do, you begin to put some informational meat on the presentation.

Finally, Where We’re Going: This is probably the most crucial part of the presentation. Critical information areas include giving investors some insight into how your company plans to compete; opportunities for growth and profitability; how you view the future of your industry; and the unique products or service offerings you plan to use to set your company apart going forward. This should be where the good investor presentation distinguishes its company from other possible investments in an investor’s mind. Remember, sophisticated investors are looking at an investment in your company as a claim on the future cash flows of the company, so they have to have a good sense of where those cash flows may be coming from.

Interwoven into all of this, Dave Mossberg, my colleague at Three Part Advisors, would add, “The presentation should give the investor three compelling reasons to own the stock”. Investor relations being a consultative sale, rather than a hard sell, the art here is to make the compelling reasons obvious enough for a reasonably astute investor to grasp without hitting them between the eyes with a two by four. So if, at the end of the presentation, the investor can sum things up by saying something along the lines of: they have a great track record, industry leading technology and are growing rapidly in an industry segment that is poised for expansion, you will have accomplished your presentation objectives.

Golf and Investor Relations

Mark Twain famously called golf “A good walk spoiled”. I was reminded of this because last weekend I returned to playing golf after a ten-year hiatus. In between swings of the golf club (of which there were many), I got to thinking about what investor relations practitioners can learn from the game of golf. So, hard on the heels of a discussion of the infield fly rule and IR (May 25, 2011), here are some of the thoughts that popped into my head about how golf resembles IR.

First, the more people you have, the longer the process takes. A twosome in golf plays more quickly than a foursome. In investor relations, if you are drafting documents, a large group takes much more time writing, editing and revising than a small group. While in a normal quarterly release process, this doesn’t matter too much, except to raise the blood pressure of the investor relations officer that has to try and write clear concise prose after the securities lawyer, the accountants, the general counsel, the CEO and the operations people have had their say, it becomes much more important when faced with a crisis situation when speed is essential. So when you need to get a release or a response out quickly, have a smaller designated group lined up for those exceptional circumstances. To many businessmen, this is counter-intuitive, as they are used to solving issues by throwing more bodies at the problem.

A corollary to this is that you are only as speedy as your slowest player. If you are out on the course and have one player who is constantly searching for their ball, or taking eight or nine practice swings before hitting the ball, everyone has to wait. Similarly, in the editing process, if you have one person who is consistently late in sending in edits, the entire process slows down.

Both golf and investor relations have their own coded clichés designed to blunt the impact of bad news that we can pull out at a moment’s notice. For example, in golf, when you say, “You’re on the beach”, it refers to your having landed in the sand trap; not to taking a quick refreshing break at the seaside. Similarly, in business, the phrase, “He left to spend more time with his family” does not really mean that the person in question wants to become more of a family person; rather it means he was fired and the company does not want to tell you the real reason the executive was let go.

Finally, both golf and investor relations are governed by sets of complicated and arcane rules that can get you into trouble if you’re not careful. It’s important to know the rules and abide by them – in golf, no one wants to play with a cheater, whereas in investor relations, your reputation for honesty and integrity are of paramount importance. Interestingly, in both golf and investor relations, the primary means of enforcement is self policing, although there are notable exceptions. Golf pros are bedeviled by people watching on TV who will call the PGA if they think there has been the slightest rules infraction, and in investor relations the plaintiff’s bar is always willing to second guess disclosure issues if the company’s stock price goes down.

Well, that’s it for now – you don’t want to overdo these analogies. Besides, I need to go practice my swing – it could be that I will play another round before ten years is up.

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Want respect? Get strategic!

To gain a seat at the table with senior management, investor relations people must talk their way into helping their companies formulate strategy, George Barrett, chairman and CEO of Cardinal Health, told several hundred IROs today in a keynote address at the 2011 NIRI Annual Conference in Orlando.

“I really do feel that you’ve got to be a part of the strategy process. It’s very difficult for you to just be a voice for it. You need to feel it in your bones,” Barrett said. He urged IROs to “assert yourself,” perhaps by suggesting to the CEO that you can better communicate strategy if you sit in on the team formulating it.

“I view IR as an extension of my ears and my eyes, and this requires strategic fluency,” said Barrett, who joined Cardinal in 2008. “Investor relations must serve as a strategic partner, not just a voice to the Street.”

Barrett said he looks to Cardinal IRO and Senior VP Sally Curley to frame the context for company strategy, convey investors’ perspectives internally to management, and help separate the noise in the market from what’s important to the company.

One question some investors love to ask is “What keeps you up at night?” As CEO of a multifaceted $99 billion healthcare company that distributes pharmaceuticals, medical equipment and other products, Barrett tells it straight …

Here’s the real answer: pretty much everything.

And that’s true of a good IRO, as well.